Astronomy7 papers
Mean-motion resonances in 2025
by Evgeny Smirnov
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Chaotic diffusion and transient resonance captures of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4
Smirnov & Evgeny A. (2025)
- Published
- Jun 1, 2025
- Journal
- Astronomy and Astrophysics
At a Glance
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 72% probability of prior residence in Jupiter's 3:1 resonance, confirmed by resonance sticking across multiple MMRs.
Summary
This study uses backward numerical integrations of 1000 virtual asteroids to dynamically confirm that the high-profile near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was most likely delivered from the 3J-1 Kirkwood gap via chaotic diffusion — matching the 73.9% probability independently estimated from population models. The asteroid exhibits resonance sticking, with transient captures in the 1M-2 and 2M+3J-5 resonances lasting only thousands of years, illustrating how overlapping two- and three-body mean-motion resonances create the transport pathways that feed the near-Earth asteroid population.
Method Snapshot
backward numerical integrations of 1,000 clone orbits for 100,000 years using the IAS15 integrator + virtual clones simulator
Background
mean-motion resonances, virtual asteroids' simulation
AI Abstract
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 is dynamically interesting due to its predicted close approach to Earth in 2032 and its possible past residence in mean-motion resonances (MMRs). We investigated its prior resonant status via backward numerical integrations for 100,000 years using a statistical ensemble of 1,000 virtual asteroids sampled within observational uncertainties and the IAS15 (modified Everhart) integrator. The analysis shows a 72% probability that 2024 YR4 was trapped in the 3J-1 resonance in its past, including the nominal orbit, with clear resonance-sticking behavior and multiple temporary captures in various resonances. Besides the dominant 3J-1 MMR, 16% of simulations show capture in the 1M-2 resonance and 12% in the 2M+3J-5 resonance, typically lasting 2,000–10,000 years. These findings support models where chaotic diffusion from overlapping mean-motion and secular resonances transports objects from the main belt into near-Earth orbits.