Astronomy12 papers
The Yarkovsky effect
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Ivana Milić Žitnik
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Yarkovsky Effect on Small Near-Earth Asteroids: Mathematical Formulation and Examples
D. Vokrouhlický et al. (2000)
- Published
- Nov 1, 2000
- Journal
- Icarus · Vol. 148 · No. 1
- DOI
- 10.1006/icar.2000.6469
At a Glance
Links Yarkovsky thermal forces to radar-grade orbit fits, predicting which NEAs can yield the first direct detections.
Summary
This paper lays out practical, orbit-determination-ready formulas for the diurnal and seasonal Yarkovsky effects and quantifies how they drift near-Earth asteroid semimajor axes. It shows that detection is not yet possible with then-current data, but becomes feasible when precise radar astrometry spans enough time—because the along-track signature grows roughly quadratically with elapsed time. Using full covariance propagation to future apparitions, it identifies concrete detection opportunities (notably 6489 Golevka in 2003 and 1620 Geographos in 2008–2015) and argues that very small objects like 1998 KY26 could strongly constrain thermal properties via a large Yarkovsky-induced offset at its 2024 encounter. The implications are twofold: improved NEA ephemerides/impact-risk assessment and the prospect of inferring asteroid surface thermal conductivity (and thus regolith/physical state) from dynamics.
Method Snapshot
Combine analytic/semianalytic thermophysical Yarkovsky force models with high-precision radar+optical orbit determination and covariance-based observability forecasts.
Background
Comfort with celestial mechanics/orbit determination plus basic thermal physics of radiative heating and conduction on rotating bodies.