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The Yarkovsky effect

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IŽ

Ivana Milić Žitnik

15 papers · 4 Must Read · 2000–2024

Last updated Mar 17, 2026

Sorted by publication date, newest first. New papers are marked so you can spot recent additions.

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The Yarkovsky Effect on the Long-term Evolution of Binary Asteroids(pdf)

Wen-Han 文翰 Zhou 周, David Vokrouhlický, Masanori Kanamaru et al. · 2024 · The Astrophysical Journal Letters

At a GlanceAI

Shows Yarkovsky forces can rapidly reshape binary-asteroid orbits, driving satellites toward synchrony or ejection on ~0.1 Myr timescales.

SummaryAI

This paper elevates the often-neglected Yarkovsky force to a key driver of small binary-asteroid evolution, alongside tides and BYORP. It develops an analytic “binary Yarkovsky” model that combines eclipse-driven Yarkovsky–Schach (YS) forcing with a weaker, opposing planetary Yarkovsky term, and validates the scaling against thermophysical simulations. The main implication is a set of new evolutionary pathways: prograde asynchronous secondaries are pushed toward the synchronous-orbit location (often faster than tides and possibly competitive with stochastic YORP), while retrograde secondaries are driven outward, potentially creating asteroid pairs with opposite spin poles. The work also makes mission-testable predictions, including a potentially measurable post-DART orbital shrinkage rate for Dimorphos if it was knocked out of synchronous rotation, and suggests Yarkovsky-assisted synchronization for the wide Dinkinesh–Selam system where tides are too weak.

By developing and numerically verifying an analytical model that includes Yarkovsky–Schach and planetary thermal effects, the researchers demonstrated that the Yarkovsky force significantly impacts mutual binary orbits. This orbital evolution occurs specifically in non-synchronous systems, where the spin and orbital periods differ, opening up new possibilities for understanding how binary systems migrate over time.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Analytical orbit-averaged radiation-force modeling of eclipse-modulated thermal recoil, benchmarked with thermophysical numerical simulations of a simplified binary.
Background:AI
Background in asteroid thermophysics and spin–orbit dynamics (Yarkovsky/YORP, tides, and binary orbital evolution).
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Worth Reading
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The functional relation between three-body mean motion resonances and Yarkovsky drift speeds(pdf)

I Milić Žitnik · 2021 · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

At a GlanceAI

Empirical scaling laws link asteroid Yarkovsky drift to time delays while crossing Jupiter–Saturn three-body resonances.

SummaryAI

This paper quantifies how three-body mean-motion resonances with Jupiter and Saturn modify (delay or speed up) Yarkovsky-driven semimajor-axis migration of main-belt asteroids. Using 84,000 Orbit9 integrations across seven isolated resonances, it derives simple power-law relations connecting the average resonance-crossing time offset ⟨dtr⟩ to resonance strength SR and drift rate da/dt for low eccentricities (e<0.1). The fitted formulas reproduce the numerical averages well over a defined SR and da/dt range, and show a pronounced asymmetry: for outward drift (da/dt>0) most ⟨dtr⟩ values are negative, implying faster-than-drift crossing. These relations provide a compact way to incorporate three-body resonance “mobility barriers” into long-term transport and delivery models without rerunning large suites of integrations.

Here are devised two equations that approximately describe the functional relation between the average time dtr spent in the three-body resonance, the strength of the resonance SR, and the semimajor axis drift speed da/dt (positive and negative) with the orbital eccentricities of asteroids in the range (0, 0.1).

— IŽ

Method:AI
Large-ensemble N-body numerical integrations with a prescribed Yarkovsky semimajor-axis drift, followed by regression fits relating ⟨dtr⟩ to SR and da/dt.
Background:AI
Background in asteroid dynamics, mean-motion resonances (especially three-body), and the Yarkovsky effect in semimajor-axis evolution.
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The functional relation between mean motion resonances and Yarkovsky force on small eccentricities(pdf)

I Milić Žitnik · 2020 · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

At a GlanceAI

Empirical scaling links resonance strength and Yarkovsky drift to how long eccentric asteroids are sped up or delayed crossing Jupiter MMRs.

SummaryAI

This paper quantifies how Jupiter’s mean-motion resonances modify Yarkovsky-driven semimajor-axis drift for main-belt-like eccentricities e=0.1–0.2, focusing on the net time lead/lag accumulated while crossing a resonance. Using large ensembles of numerical integrations, it derives a log-linear fit relating average transit time offset ⟨dtr⟩ to resonance strength SR and imposed drift rate da/dt, and shows that the previously published relation for e<0.1 fails because ⟨dtr⟩ is often negative at higher eccentricity (resonances can speed up crossings). The result provides a practical recipe—separately for strong vs. weak resonances—to parameterize resonance “friction/boost” in population or Monte Carlo transport models of asteroid mobility.

Here is derived a functional relation that accurately describes dependence between the average time lead/lag dtr in mean motion resonances, the strength of the resonance SR, and the semimajor axis drift speed da/dt with asteroids’ orbital eccentricities in the range (0.1, 0.2).

— IŽ

Method:AI
Ensemble N-body numerical integrations with an imposed constant Yarkovsky semimajor-axis drift, followed by least-squares fitting of ⟨dtr⟩ versus SR and da/dt.
Background:AI
Basic celestial mechanics of mean-motion resonances plus familiarity with the Yarkovsky effect and statistical interpretation of numerical orbit integrations.
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The relationship between the `limiting' Yarkovsky drift speed and asteroid families' Yarkovsky V-shape

I. Milic-Zitnik · 2020 · Serbian Astronomical Journal

At a GlanceAI

Links a “limiting” Yarkovsky drift rate to slope breaks in old asteroid-family V-shapes near strong mean-motion resonances.

SummaryAI

This paper proposes that a previously defined threshold (“limiting”) Yarkovsky semimajor-axis drift rate (~7×10−5 au/Myr) leaves an observable imprint on asteroid-family V-shapes. Using a standard Yarkovsky scaling relation (calibrated to Bennu), it converts that limiting drift rate into family-specific “limiting diameters” and compares them to V-shape borders for 11 main-belt families. For very old families with relatively strong mean-motion resonances close to the parent body, the observed V-shape border changes slope near 1/D equal to the inverse limiting diameter, suggesting two dynamical regimes for resonance crossing; younger families or those lacking nearby strong resonances do not show this breakpoint. If robust, the result adds a resonance-dependent bias to how V-shapes are interpreted and could affect family-age inferences in resonance-rich regions.

The main conclusion of this study is: the location of the inverse of the ‘limiting’ diameter 1/D(limit) (derived from the ‘limiting’ Yarkovsky drift speed, 7 × 10^(−5) au/Myr) is exactly at the place of changing the V-shape slope of the border in an old asteroid family which are crossed in the same side by relatively strong mean motion resonance, very close to the parent body, in the (a, 1/D) plane.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Compute family-dependent limiting diameters from a Yarkovsky drift scaling law and compare them to observed V-shape border morphology across resonant and non-resonant families.
Background:AI
Background in asteroid-family identification and evolution, Yarkovsky/YORP thermal forces, and mean-motion resonances in celestial mechanics.
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★ Essential

The specific property of motion of resonant asteroids with very slow Yarkovsky drift speeds

Ivana Milić Žitnik · 2019 · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

At a GlanceAI

Numerical integrations reveal a drift-rate threshold below which asteroids “jump” quickly across Jupiter mean-motion resonances.

SummaryAI

This paper shows that asteroids with extremely small Yarkovsky semimajor-axis drift rates can traverse Jupiter’s mean-motion resonances faster than expected, particularly for strong resonances. Using large ensembles of long-term numerical integrations, it identifies a behavioral “breakpoint” near |da/dt| ≈ 7×10⁻⁵ au/Myr: below this value, average resonance-induced delays become negative, indicating accelerated crossing. The result matters for modeling how main-belt asteroids migrate through resonances and may affect interpretations of asteroid-family spreading (e.g., V-shape curvature) when resonances are involved.

This paper has presented a new description on the orbital behavior of resonant asteroids with very small Yarkovsky drift speeds. The conclusion is the boundary value of da/dt in the motion of resonant main belt asteroids under the influence of the Yarkovsky effect is at |−7| ×10^(−5) au/Myr. Below this value, asteroids typically quickly jump across the mean motion resonances, and this is especially the case in strong resonances, such as 9:4, 8:3 and 13:6 with Jupiter.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Long-duration N-body numerical integrations with an imposed constant Yarkovsky semimajor-axis drift, measuring resonance crossing lead/lag statistics across multiple Jupiter MMRs.
Background:AI
Basic celestial mechanics of mean-motion resonances and the Yarkovsky effect in asteroid orbital evolution.
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Worth Reading
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★ Essential

THE ROLE OF MEAN-MOTION RESONANCES IN SEMIMAJOR AXIS MOBILITY OF ASTEROIDS(pdf)

Ivana Milić Žitnik, Bojan Novaković · 2016 · The Astrophysical Journal Letters

At a Glance

This allows one to determine the distribution that represents the best data obtained for time delays <dtr> caused by the resonances on the mobility of an asteroid in the main belt.

Summary

It is reported findings about the effect of 11 two-body mean-motion resonances (MMRs) with Jupiter, on the mobility of an asteroid’s semimajor axis caused by the Yarkovsky effect. This study is accomplished using numerical integrations of test particles. The obtained results reveal that MMRs could either speed up or slow down the drift in the semimajor axis. Moreover, this allows to determine the distribution that represents the best data obtained for time delays <dtr> caused by the resonances on the mobility of an asteroid. It is found a certain functional relationship that describes dependence of the average time lead/lag.

This Letter presents a novel view on the interaction between mean-notion resonances and the Yarkovsky effect, describing for the first time the functional relationship between the average time spent inside a resonance, the strength of the resonance, and the semimajor axis drift speed.

— IŽ

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Interaction between Yarkovsky force and mean-motion resonances: Some specific properties

I. Milic-Zitnik · 2016 · Serbian Astronomical Journal

At a Glance

This paper analyzed the role of mean-motion resonances in semi- major axis mobility of asteroids, and established a functional relationship that describes the dependence of the average time spent inside the resonance on the strength of this resonance and the semi-major axis drift speed.

Summary

Here was analyzed the role of mean-motion resonances in semi- major axis mobility of asteroids, and established a functional relationship that describes the dependence of the average time spent inside the resonance on the strength of this resonance and the semi-major axis drift speed. This analysis is extended in two directions: the distribution of time delays inside the resonance and found that it could be described by the modified Laplace asymmetric distribution. Second: how the time spent inside the resonance depends on orbital eccentricity, and propose a relation that allows taking this parameter into account as well.

It would be easy to calculate the average time that an object spent inside an mean-motion resonance, with given the resonance’s strength, the Yarkovsky drift speed and an object’s eccentricity (0.025<e<0.4). The derived modified Laplace statistical distribution could be used for generating the average time for certain number of asteroids with a particular Yarkovsky drift speed in mean motion resonances.

— IŽ

Method:
numerical integrations, statistical methods
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★ Essential

The Yarkovsky effect for 99942 Apophis

David Vokrouhlický, Davide Farnocchia, David Čapek et al. · 2015 · Icarus

At a GlanceAI

Models Apophis’ Yarkovsky drift despite tumbling, tightening post-2029 trajectory and late-century impact probabilities.

SummaryAI

This paper matters because Apophis’ 2029 Earth flyby makes tiny non-gravitational forces dominate long-term impact-risk forecasts. Using newly measured shape, size, thermophysics, and a confirmed tumbling rotation state, the authors compute Apophis’ Yarkovsky-driven semimajor-axis drift and show tumbling does not significantly suppress the effect, validating a widely used simplification for km-scale tumblers. They predict a drift of about −12.8±3.6×10⁻⁴ au/Myr (1σ) and find current astrometry only weakly constrains Yarkovsky, but is consistent with the model. Mapping combined uncertainties onto the 2029 b-plane updates keyhole impact odds: no impacts before 2060, but residual post-2060 probabilities remain at the few-per-million level, dominated by a 2068 return scenario.

They used the determined rotation state, shape, size and thermophysical model of Apophis to predict the strength of the Yarkovsky effect in its orbit.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Numerical thermophysical modeling on a polyhedral shape with non-principal-axis rotation, combined with orbit fitting and 2029 b-plane/keyhole uncertainty mapping.
Background:AI
Background in asteroid orbital dynamics (Yarkovsky effect, close-encounter uncertainty growth) and basic thermophysics of radiative heat recoil.
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★ Essential

The Yarkovsky and YORP Effects

D. Vokrouhlický, W. F. Bottke, S. R. Chesley et al. · 2015 · Asteroids IV

At a GlanceAI

Comprehensive review of how thermal radiation forces/torques (Yarkovsky, YORP, BYORP) drive asteroid orbits, spins, and binaries.

SummaryAI

This chapter synthesizes the modern theory, measurement techniques, and scientific uses of the Yarkovsky (orbital drift) and YORP/BYORP (spin and binary-orbit evolution) effects, which are now central to small-body dynamics. It highlights why Yarkovsky is comparatively robust to model (often spherical/1D thermal models suffice) while YORP is intrinsically sensitive to fine-scale topography, self-heating, and 3D heat transport—making prediction harder and motivating “stochastic/self-limited YORP” ideas. Using full-text case studies and detection catalogs (e.g., Bennu’s extremely precise Yarkovsky drift; a short list of firm YORP detections; BYORP non-detections consistent with tide–BYORP equilibrium), it shows how these subtle forces constrain asteroid density/thermal inertia, shape and internal structure, and even impact probabilities. The review also connects these effects to population-level outcomes such as NEA retrograde-spin excess, asteroid-family age dating via Yarkovsky spreading, spin-axis clustering (Slivan states), and binary formation/evolution pathways driven by YORP/BYORP plus tides.

The study summarizes the knowledge about Yarkovsky, YORP, BYORP effects up to 2015.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Analytical scaling theory plus thermophysical/radiative recoil modeling, tied to orbit/rotation-state estimation from radar and long-arc optical photometry.
Background:AI
Celestial mechanics and basic heat transfer/thermophysics for small Solar System bodies.
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Worth Reading
advanced
★ Essential

Near Earth Asteroids with measurable Yarkovsky effect

D. Farnocchia, S.R. Chesley, D. Vokrouhlický et al. · 2013 · Icarus

At a GlanceAI

Robustly measures Yarkovsky-driven orbital drift for 21 NEAs using precision dynamics and careful astrometry, improving spin/impact inferences.

SummaryAI

This paper expands direct evidence for the Yarkovsky effect in near-Earth asteroids by extracting a measurable semimajor-axis drift from orbit fits while tightly controlling for modeling and astrometric systematics. Using a high-fidelity force model (including relativistic terms and 16 massive asteroids) plus debiased/weighted astrometry, the authors identify 21 reliable detections with SNR>3 and show most drifts are negative, implying a strong excess of retrograde rotators. They connect that retrograde excess to NEA delivery via resonances (especially ν6) and show measured drifts can constrain physical properties like bulk density/thermal inertia when some spin/size information exists. The work also clarifies when Yarkovsky becomes the dominant uncertainty in long-term impact prediction, with implications for cases like 1950 DA and future monitoring horizons.

By measuring non-gravitational orbital drift, this study identifies the Yarkovsky effect across the NEA population. The reliability of these detections is maintained through a high-precision model—incorporating relativistic terms and the mass of 16 large asteroids—combined with specialized astrometric error treatment.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Simultaneous orbit determination with an added one-parameter transverse nongravitational acceleration (A2) to fit Yarkovsky-induced drift from radar+optical astrometry.
Background:AI
Background in celestial mechanics/orbit determination and basic thermal recoil physics (Yarkovsky/YORP) for small bodies.
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★ Essential

Direct Detection of the Yarkovsky Effect by Radar Ranging to Asteroid 6489 Golevka

Steven R. Chesley, Steven J. Ostro, David Vokrouhlický et al. · 2003 · Science

Arecibo radar ranging of NEA 6489 Golevka (diameter ~ 0.5 km) confirms the presence of Yarkovsky-driven orbital drift. This non-gravitational perturbation was isolated by comparing the asteroid's observed trajectory against purely Newtonian dynamical models.

— IŽ

Background:
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Dynamical Spreading of Asteroid Families by the Yarkovsky Effect

William F. Bottke, David Vokrouhlický, Miroslav Broz̆ et al. · 2001 · Science

At a GlanceAI

Yarkovsky-driven drift plus resonances can reshape asteroid families, resolving overly high inferred ejection speeds and explaining sharp edges.

SummaryAI

This paper shows that asteroid families are not static relics of a breakup: small-to-mid size fragments can slowly drift in semimajor axis via the Yarkovsky thermal force over hundreds of My to Gyr. Using the Koronis family as a case study, the authors demonstrate that Yarkovsky drift combined with secular and mean-motion resonances naturally produces (i) sharp family boundaries at Kirkwood gaps, (ii) asymmetric family shapes (including eccentricity “jumps”), and (iii) family members on short-lived, resonance-driven escape trajectories. The key implication is that present-day orbital spreads of D≲20 km family members largely reflect long-term dynamical evolution, so naive back-calculation of breakup ejection velocities from current family widths can be seriously biased high.

It is hypothesized that family members with diameters smaller than 20 km have experienced significant semi-major axis drift due to the Yarkovsky effect since the family's inception. Furthermore, the interplay between these drifting objects and various orbital resonances can induce distinct modifications in their eccentricity and inclination.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Long-term N-body integrations of synthetic family fragments including a parametrized Yarkovsky thermal recoil force and resonance interactions.
Background:AI
Basic asteroid-family concepts, orbital elements/resonances, and the idea of thermal nongravitational forces (Yarkovsky effect) in celestial mechanics.
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★ Essential

Yarkovsky Effect on Small Near-Earth Asteroids: Mathematical Formulation and Examples

D. Vokrouhlický, A. Milani, S.R. Chesley · 2000 · Icarus

At a GlanceAI

Links Yarkovsky thermal forces to radar-grade orbit fits, predicting which NEAs can yield the first direct detections.

SummaryAI

This paper lays out practical, orbit-determination-ready formulas for the diurnal and seasonal Yarkovsky effects and quantifies how they drift near-Earth asteroid semimajor axes. It shows that detection is not yet possible with then-current data, but becomes feasible when precise radar astrometry spans enough time—because the along-track signature grows roughly quadratically with elapsed time. Using full covariance propagation to future apparitions, it identifies concrete detection opportunities (notably 6489 Golevka in 2003 and 1620 Geographos in 2008–2015) and argues that very small objects like 1998 KY26 could strongly constrain thermal properties via a large Yarkovsky-induced offset at its 2024 encounter. The implications are twofold: improved NEA ephemerides/impact-risk assessment and the prospect of inferring asteroid surface thermal conductivity (and thus regolith/physical state) from dynamics.

In this paper was investigated the possibility of detecting the Yarkovsky effect via precise orbit determination of near-Earth asteroids.

— IŽ

Method:AI
Combine analytic/semianalytic thermophysical Yarkovsky force models with high-precision radar+optical orbit determination and covariance-based observability forecasts.
Background:AI
Comfort with celestial mechanics/orbit determination plus basic thermal physics of radiative heating and conduction on rotating bodies.